The 49ers don’t really feel scary anymore, and the tape proves it

Do y’all keep in mind that band you grew up on all the time being good, taking part in top quality music, however then as everybody will get older and life modifications, the music doesn’t sound the identical?

That’s what the San Francisco 49ers really feel like.

Amidst a 12 months of harm, dysfunction, and simply general not feeling the identical because the face-melting groups we usually affiliate with San Francisco, this season has been pushed to the brink of lacking the playoffs. The Niners have been met a chilly splash of actuality on Sunday, dropping 20-17 at residence to the Seattle Seahawks, their first loss to Seattle since 2021. The loss dropped them to 5-5, however with losses to the Rams and Cardinals, they’re useless final within the division, in a 12 months the place they have been alleged to as soon as once more be on the high of the convention.

Let’s go beneath the hood and work out why precisely this group hasn’t been the identical 49ers group we all know.

The offense has been … bizarre

When you go by counting stats, the Niners’ offense has been one of many higher ones within the sport. Second in yards per recreation, tied for eighth in factors per recreation, fifth in EPA/play, and sixth in Success Charge. Nevertheless, the offense hasn’t felt prefer it’s been simple to return by. Once you watch a Kyle Shanahan offense in San Francisco, you’re usually working beneath the belief that they’ll have the ability to generate simple offense through the run recreation and in Yards After the Catch. The mixture of Shanahan’s scheme and the MonStars (WRs Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk, TE George Kittle, RB Christian McCaffrey and FB Kyle Juszczyk) made it unattainable to defend them. Any checkdown might be became an eight yard achieve, and any eight yard achieve might be a landing.

Nicely, the YAC hasn’t precisely been hitting the identical this season. This season the Niners are twenty fourth in whole Yards after the Catch and and twenty fifth in YAC/completion, per Professional Soccer Reference, means down from being first within the NFL in that very same metric in 2023. The dynamic potential for each checkdown to be a menace has considerably gone away this season for San Francisco, closing the margin for error this group has.

This margin will get particularly shut within the crimson zone, the place the Niners have utterly fallen aside. This season San Francisco is fifteenth in EPA per play within the crimson space and 14th in Success Charge, noticeably down from fifth in EPA per play and first in Success Charge within the crimson zone in 2023. Because the MonStars have worn down on account of harm (Kittle didn’t play within the loss to Seattle, McCaffrey remains to be getting again to 100%, Aiyuk is out for the season with a torn ACL, and Samuel has missed time with harm/illness), the offense simply hasn’t felt like they’ve been capable of hit the simple buttons as typically as they’ve been capable of.

Take this play towards Seattle, for instance. Though San Francisco is a methods away from the tip zone, you usually count on McCaffrey to make somebody miss and get greater than 5 yards. He’s working an choice route and goes to the area, however as soon as he’s there, doesn’t make anybody miss.

Examine this to 2023, the place McCaffrey is working an choice route once more and has leverage to the skin and is ready to flip this into a giant optimistic achieve. I’m not saying McCaffrey has misplaced a step, however the complete group’s incapacity to hit large on performs after the catch this season has made the margins a bit smaller this season.

I additionally assume they haven’t been as capable of beat man protection as they was. Final season they shredded the little man protection they confronted, posting a 63.44 whole EPA and 56.9% Optimistic Play Charge towards man protection (per Sports activities Data Options). This season, whereas nonetheless being within the high ten amongst NFL groups, they haven’t been practically as potent. By way of 10 video games they’ve already had 100 passing makes an attempt towards man protection (they’d 106 of these makes an attempt in 2023—whole), and solely generated a complete EPA of 8.35 and a forty five.7% Success Charge. Once more, not numbers to show your nostril up at however completely not what we count on from this core of gamers.

That is the place they miss Aiyuk and desperately want McCaffrey to return to what he was. They have been capable of shred man protection as a result of it meant you have been leaving McCaffrey in remoted conditions on a linebacker, or Aiyuk would shred on the skin. Final 12 months, Aiyuk had an unbelievable 1.01 EPA per goal towards man protection third in the complete NFL in that metric. He was behind George Kittle, who was at an absurd 1.11 EPA per goal towards man on 22 targets. This 12 months, their greatest receiver towards man is WR Jauan Jennings, who at a 0.69 isn’t dangerous, however there’s rather more wrestle this season. Regardless that some catches are being made, there’s a lot much less explosion coming from this group.

Which brings us to the QB. Hear, I’m not doing Brock Purdy discourse in 2024. It’s pointless to proceed to speak in the identical circles we’ve been speaking about him in for the final two years. What I’ll say is that he’s improved this 12 months in his scrambling potential to mitigate a few of the margin for error this season, but additionally can’t overcome these smaller margins by himself. Not each QB is Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen, and Purdy must be helped out a bit.

There’s been quite a bit made in regards to the Niners not altering protections or letting Purdy name audibles, however I simply don’t assume that’s the case. Purdy has the identical quantity of freedom as most different QBs within the NFL in the case of “can”-ing performs (going from one playcall to the opposite playcall). The larger drawback right here is an offensive line that hasn’t actually performed as much as commonplace. Trent Williams remains to be good, and rookie Dominick Puni is promising at proper guard, however in all places else there are main holes. You’ll be able to solely scheme your self away from a poorer offensive line for therefore lengthy, and the Niners’ offense appears like they’re struggling to play the suitable notes collectively in important areas.

The defensive mind drain has lastly hit

For years, the San Francisco 49ers have been capable of reload their protection after dropping coordinators and high quality gamers to harm or free company. This 12 months it hasn’t been the identical case. Their protection has gone by way of main upheaval and “mind drain” on the defensive aspect of the ball that it’s lastly taking successful on the unit’s success. They’re at present twelfth in defensive EPA per play allowed and seventeenth in Success Charge allowed, however these are each main steps again from being at or close to the highest of the league as we’re used to seeing them. The fixed upheaval on the coordinator spot, going from Robert Saleh, to Demeco Ryans, to Steve Wilks to now Nick Sorensen and Brandon Staley crafting the protection has taken this effectively coached unit to at least one that makes a bit extra errors than we’re used to seeing.

On high of that, the power to rebuild and reload the defensive roster has taken some hits. That is their 2023 roster, through ESPN’s Invoice Barnwell, and the quantity of snaps they’ve performed for the group in 2024. Sooner or later the pattern of all the time dropping gamers has to take impact, and it seems prefer it has for the Niners.

A serious sticking level has been their incapacity to get strain exterior of Nick Bosa. When Bosa is on the sector, the Niners’ strain charge is 35.4%, which might tie them with the Minnesota Vikings for tenth in the complete league. With out Bosa it drops to twenty-eight%, placing them in between the Arizona Cardinals and Jacksonville Jaguars, who’re twenty ninth and thirtieth within the league, respectively.

The motley crew of Leonard Floyd, Yetur Gross-Matos and Robert Beal haven’t been constant sufficient to offer constant pop subsequent to Bosa, and it’s making their protection undergo. In addition they merely aren’t ok towards the run this 12 months, which is extra of a teambuilding factor than anything. They’re twenty second in Dashing Success Charge allowed and twentieth in EPA/rush allowed and even decrease final 12 months, each main drops from being second in each classes in 2021. They’ve struggled to discover a true nostril sort out after DJ Jones left in free company (though rookie DT Evan Anderson has helped out in that space), and with the constant mind drain beginning to come by way of, they don’t have as a lot potential to beat it this season. Whereas the Niners’ offense has felt snakebitten by harm, their protection appears like some flaws in teambuilding coming residence to roost.

Now, I’m not going to be the one to doom and gloom the Niners. It’s laborious to say {that a} group with Kyle Shanahan as their head playcaller and the expertise on offense goes to falter to finish this season. Nevertheless, they’ve video games on the street towards Inexperienced Bay, Arizona, Buffalo and Miami, together with residence tilts towards Detroit and the Los Angeles Rams to finish the season. In the event that they’re going to make the playoffs, it’ll need to be going by way of a assassin’s row of opponents to wrap this season up.

Regardless that it’s not all doom and gloom, it does really feel like that is the ultimate trip for this model of the Niners. And whether it is, it’s much less a grand finale, and extra of a tragic swan music.