100 video games right into a 162-game season, the San Diego Padres have been 50-50. They have been on the point of burp away one other 12 months of the primes of Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado, to not point out the outlier season of Jurickson Profar’s profession.
On Saturday night time, they blanked Arizona 5-0 in Phoenix to enhance to 43-18 since falling to .500 on a July night in Cleveland. They did so with half the beginning lineup taking an evening off and a fill-in starter from Triple-A El Paso, Randy Vasquez, permitting only one hit to a Diamondbacks workforce determined for a win.
“There’s no query this membership, no matter who we put on the market, goes to compete,” mentioned first-year supervisor Mike Shildt.
What a 180-degree flip from final 12 months, when San Diego folded on the first signal of adversity and constantly didn’t win the shut ones. Bob Melvin managed one of many recreation’s most star-studded rosters to an 82-80 file and missed the playoffs in what was seemingly essentially the most disappointing season within the historical past of a franchise that is aware of loads about disappointing seasons.
This isn’t a kind of seasons, which is why you would possibly wish to lay a few cents on the Padres in the event you’re on the lookout for an affordable worth decide within the Nationwide League.
Plenty of “sensible” cash will likely be wagered on the Los Angeles Dodgers and Philadelphia Phillies. However Los Angeles’ pitching workers is thinner than a runway mannequin, and Philadelphia has been a sub-.500 workforce within the final 65 video games.
Which brings us again to why San Diego is your NL sleeper. Not solely is it enjoying the perfect ball of any of the contenders since mid-July, it additionally may need the fewest weaknesses of any of the playoff groups.
They may not have beginning pitching nearly as good because the Phillies, however Yu Darvish, Joe Musgrove, Dylan Stop and Michael King are a stable rotation. Stop has extra strikeouts than anybody not named Tarik Skubal or Chris Sale, whereas Darvish and Musgrove are lastly wholesome after lacking lengthy chunks of the season. King was a revelation, pitching to a 2.95 earned run common in 31 begins throughout his first full 12 months in an MLB rotation.
The Padres can match bullpens with anybody. Even together with his September hunch, Robert Suarez notched 36 saves and 9 wins. Tanner Scott and Jason Adam are glorious set-up males, whereas Jeremiah Estrada and Adrian Morejon may shut for a lot of MLB groups.
Offensively, San Diego has in some way gotten higher after buying and selling Juan Soto, an act of prestidigitation that may enable basic supervisor A.J. Preller to maintain his job after final 12 months’s flop.
Its lineup has extra depth from high to backside, illustrated by 17 homers from No. 9 hitter Kyle Higashioka. It leads MLB in batting common and is high 10 in on-base, slugging proportion and runs. It additionally boasts much less swing-and-miss than any lineup within the bigs, posting the fewest strikeouts.
Assume that doesn’t imply something? Wish to take a look at one of many hidden explanation why Houston has been good for a decade? It additionally doesn’t strike out loads. Regardless of the baseball nerds’ insistence that strikeouts don’t imply something, whiffing offers a workforce one much less probability to make an opponent deal with the ball.
Keep in mind Mookie Wilson’s grounder that skirted by means of Invoice Buckner’s legs in 1986? Doesn’t occur if Wilson doesn’t make contact. Placing a ball in play all the time trumps swinging out of your tuckus and lacking by a foot.
That described the Padres’ 2023.
It gained’t describe their 2024 playoff run.