The 2024 season opened up with a number of the worst passing performances we’ve ever seen throughout the league. By means of the Sunday slate of video games, there have solely been 33 passing touchdowns by way of Week 1, which might be the bottom complete the NFL has seen during the last 5 years, per thirty third Group’s Steve Palazzolo:
Week 1 NFL passing touchdowns
2019 : 61
2020: 52
2021: 61
2022: 51
2023: 37
2024: 33**Pending MNF
— Steve Palazzolo (@StevePalazzolo_) September 9, 2024
It simply seems like passing has change into much less environment friendly, with operating the ball taking the early lead in effectivity by way of the primary week of the NFL season:
In response to the NFL turning into extra pass-heavy lately, many have commented that ultimately we might attain a degree the place it grew to become extra environment friendly to run than cross— and the pendulum would swing the opposite method.
My mates, we could also be quickly approaching that time. pic.twitter.com/Rxm5XIJnGl
— Jake Grossman (@jakegrossman0) September 9, 2024
So, what occurred right here? What triggered passing within the NFL to take such a serious slide within the first week of the season?
Defenses are profitable the chess match
Soccer technique may be seen so much like chess, with strikes and countermoves being made with the gamers because the queens and rooks on the chessboard. Up to now, defenses are profitable this match. With the continued utilization of two-high shells, it negates the explosive downfield passing, forcing groups to make use of the run sport or fast beneath sport. We’re seeing so much much less passing general, with groups opting to run that rattling ball to be able to power groups out of these mild containers and two-high shells.
Cross % in Week 1 over the previous 6 seasons:
2024: 60.3%
2023: 62.1%
2022: 63.2%
2021: 63.9%
2020: 61.2%
2019: 63.8%I feel it is because we have now formally left the QB golden age & defenses are enjoying extra conservatively (baiting extra runs/quick passes) https://t.co/bwmEB8T2hm
— CoachSwami (@Moonlightswami) September 9, 2024
Due to how conservative defenses are calling the sport, it’s forcing offenses to both eat their greens by way of the fast sport or make explosives by way of operating the soccer. Offenses have to have the ability to throw the subsequent punch.
Lack of preseason reps
I do know, I do know. “Preseason isn’t vital! The joint practices throughout the week are what issues!” Whereas I partially agree with you, getting as much as sport velocity isn’t one thing that simply may be performed immediately.
If you concentrate on all of the groups that performed nicely on this first week, most of their starters performed within the preseason. Kansas Metropolis performed their starters for not less than the primary couple of drives in all three video games. Houston performed their guys so much, and so they all regarded like they didn’t miss a step. Whereas it’s not vital that your starters get all of the preseason reps, joint practices can solely achieve this a lot. A variety of groups (cough cough, Cincinnati) use Week 1 as principally the fourth preseason sport, and it results in performances like theirs. Not enjoying in any respect within the preseason then anticipating to come back out and play instantly nicely is a nasty course of, and we’re seeing the fruits of that.
Taking part in QB within the NFL is absolutely f****** arduous
This goes again into the primary level, and it might simply stand by itself. Taking part in QB within the NFL is as arduous because it’s ever been, due to how fluid every little thing is. Simulated pressures are all the fad; what you see pre-snap isn’t going to be the identical factor post-snap. It stresses the thoughts of sign callers who should diagnose the play, get to the correct man all in about three seconds as a result of when you don’t you’re getting crushed by a 270 pound defensive linemen. Defenses are making it arduous on the QB by throwing every little thing and the kitchen sink at them, whereas offenses ask extra of the QB in accessing center of the sector targets and transferring beneath defenders.
General, this must be the largest takeaway. Taking part in QB within the NFL is difficult, and offenses ought to make it simpler on them by operating that rattling ball.