Within the aftermath of the 2024 presidential election, some commentators have argued that People don’t consider that the Democratic Get together shares their political priorities. Based on a big survey we performed instantly after the election, these critics are onto one thing. People overwhelmingly—however, it seems, mistakenly—consider that Democrats care extra about advancing progressive social points than broadly shared financial ones.
Extra in Widespread, a nonprofit, nonpartisan analysis group we work for, requested a consultant pattern of 5,005 People to pick the three points that had been most necessary to them. We then requested them to determine “which points you assume are most necessary to Democrats,” and the identical about Republicans. We used broad class labels relatively than asking particularly about, say, “Democratic voters” or “Republican candidates,” to seize basic perceptions of every aspect. Then we in contrast these perceptions with actuality.
Let’s begin with actuality. We discovered that People have clearly shared a high concern in 2024: the “value of residing/ inflation.” This was the No. 1 most chosen precedence inside each main demographic group, together with women and men; Black, white, Latino, and Asian People; Gen Z, Millennial, Gen X, Child Boomer, and Silent Technology age teams; working-class, middle-class, and upper-class People; suburban, city, and rural People; and Democrats, Republicans, and independents. Democratic respondents’ high priorities after inflation (40 %) had been well being care and abortion (every at 29 %), and the economic system basically (24 %). For Republicans, immigration got here in second place (47 %), adopted by the economic system basically (41 %).
On the subject of how Republicans’ and Democrats’ priorities had been perceived, nonetheless, we discovered a putting disparity: People throughout the political spectrum are significantly better at assessing what Republicans care about than what Democrats care about.
When requested about Republicans’ priorities, all main teams, together with Democrats and independents, appropriately recognized that both inflation or the economic system was amongst Republicans’ high three priorities.
In contrast, each single demographic group thought Democrats’ high precedence was abortion, overestimating the significance of this challenge by a median of 20 proportion factors. (This included Democrats themselves, suggesting that they’re considerably out of contact even with what their fellow partisans care about.) In the meantime, respondents underestimated the extent to which Democrats prioritize inflation and the economic system, rating these gadgets fourth and ninth on their record of priorities, respectively.
By far essentially the most notable approach that Democrats are misperceived pertains to what our survey known as “LGBT/ transgender coverage.” Though this was not a significant precedence for Democratic voters in actuality—it ranked 14th—our survey respondents listed it as Democrats’ second-highest precedence. This impact was particularly dramatic amongst Republicans—56 % listed the problem amongst Democrats’ high three priorities, in contrast with simply 8 % who listed inflation—however almost each main demographic group made a model of the identical mistake.
What explains why Democrats’ priorities had been so badly misunderstood whereas Republicans’ weren’t? Our analysis means that one cause is the Democratic Get together’s relationship with its left wing.
In 2018, Extra in Widespread performed a research referred to as “Hidden Tribes,” by which we recognized clusters of like-minded People who share sure ethical values and views on issues resembling parenting type. The research grouped them into seven distinct “tribes,” every with a unique worldview and approach of participating with politics. It additionally confirmed that a lot of the nationwide political dialog is pushed by small, extremely vocal camps on either side of the political divide: on the left, a gaggle we referred to as “Progressive Activists”; on the precise, a gaggle we referred to as “Devoted Conservatives.”
As a result of these teams’ voices are heard extra ceaselessly within the nationwide discourse, their views are usually confused for these of their social gathering general. (Assume, for instance, of the profusion of social-media posts, op-eds, and information protection concerning the concept of defunding or abolishing the police in the summertime of 2020—a view that was by no means broadly embraced even by the populations most affected by police violence.) This leads individuals to assume that every social gathering holds extra excessive views than it actually does. As an example, Democrats assume Republicans are extra doubtless than they really are to disclaim that “racism continues to be an issue in America,” and Republicans assume Democrats are extra doubtless than they really are to consider that “most police are unhealthy individuals.”
Our information, nonetheless, recommend that Devoted Conservatives’ priorities are extra aligned with these of the common Republican than Progressive Activists’ are with these of the common Democrat. For instance, Progressive Activists are half as doubtless as the common Democrat to prioritize the economic system and twice as prone to prioritize local weather change. In contrast, the most important distinction between common Republicans and Devoted Conservatives is on the problem of immigration, however the discrepancy is way smaller: Devoted Conservatives rank it first and Republicans rank it second. This asymmetry makes the confusion between events’ mainstreams and their extra radical flanks costlier for Democratic politicians.
The outsize affect of Progressive Activists, nonetheless, doesn’t totally account for the mismatch between notion and actuality on the subject of Democrats’ views on transgender coverage. Our survey discovered that even Progressive Activists listed the problem as their sixth-most-important precedence. So the idea that transgender coverage is Democrats’ second-highest precedence should have different causes.
One risk is that Democratic advocacy teams are prominently pushing concepts that even their very own most progressive voters are lukewarm about. One other is that Donald Trump’s marketing campaign efficiently linked Kamala Harris’s marketing campaign with controversial transgender-policy stances. In a broadly seen assault advert, a 2019 interview clip of Harris explaining her help for publicly funded sex-change surgical procedures for prisoners, together with undocumented immigrants, was punctuated by a voiceover intoning that “Kamala is for they/them; President Trump is for you.” In checks run by Harris’s predominant tremendous PAC, 2.7 % of voters shifted towards Trump after being proven the advert—a large outcome. The fixed reinforcement of the hyperlink between Harris and this coverage, coupled with Harris’s obvious incapacity or unwillingness to publicly distance herself from it, doubtless bolstered People’ affiliation of trans points with Democrats.
If elections are battles of perceptions, our information recommend that this was a battle Democrats misplaced in 2024. Regardless of the Harris marketing campaign spending nearly half a billion {dollars} extra than the Trump marketing campaign, Trump seems to have been simpler at defining Democrats’ priorities to the American public. Caught between their leftmost flank and their opponents’ assaults, Democrats had been unable to persuade the American voters that they shared voters’ considerations. If the social gathering desires to achieve floor in future elections, it might want to clear up this notion drawback.